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* CFTC RULE 4.41
- HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. DO NOT RISK ANY MONEY YOU CAN NOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

How Turtle Trading Works

   by Russell Sands

We make money only on trends, either up or down.
 
The Turtle rules allow us easily to spot trends early enough to get on board. By the time everyone else has woken up, they are often too late. We often get it wrong (note, not sometimes but often). 

In fact, we get it wrong far more often than we get it right. Looking back through my records, my own trades have been wrong on about  75% of occasions and right on just 25%. And here’s the kicker – each time we get it wrong, we lose money! 

Supposing you are betting on the roll of a 4-sided pyramid-shaped dice with faces numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4.  Let’s also assume that 75% of the time your bet will be wrong and only 25% of the time it will be right. 
That is, of course, exactly what you would expect from a 4-sided dice.  Now I want to add a further rule.
 
Each time you are wrong, it costs you $100. Each time you are right, you are paid $1,000.

Are you happy to play this game? You bet! I would play this game 24/7 if the fools would let me
 – and I hope you would too! 

This is truly a ‘no lose’ game. The longer you play, the richer you get.

But hold on. We just said you lose three rolls out of four! Also, supposing you had a really bad losing streak and 12 throws in a row you got it wrong and your number didn’t come up? 
This could easily happen. Ouch! That’s $1200 up in smoke! Would you throw up your hands in disgust and leave the table muttering that it was a mug’s game?

I sincerely hope not! You would, I hope, snap your fingers at such losses and reach for the dice again.  You know with 100% (not even 99.9999%) certainty that if you stay
at the table long  enough you will clean up big time.
Personally, I would be begging them to let me bet $1,000 a throw and get $10,000 each time I won!

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